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Baited Expectations
Baited Expectations8Fishing ItemThe line between having not enough to do and too much to do is unusually fine.Acquisition
Area level: 1Vendor Offer
1x Scroll FragmentMetadata
Item class: Divination Card
Metadata ID: Metadata/Items/DivinationCards/DivinationCardBaitedExpectations
Baited Expectations is a divination card. A set of eight can be exchanged for a random unique fishing item.
Item acquisition
A group on Reddit inspected the outcome of the divination card by opening themselves or handing multiple stacks to streamers such as mbXtreme or Slipperyjim8.[1] Based on mbXtreme's video, the outcomes are weighted. Out of 60 sets, he got 4 Module Error: Item link: No results found for search parameter "Song of the Sirens". and no Module Error: Item link: No results found for search parameter "Reefbane".. The rest were Module Error: Item link: No results found for search parameter "Fairgraves' Tricorne"., Module Error: Item link: No results found for search parameter "Slitherpinch"., Module Error: Item link: No results found for search parameter "Rainbowstride". and Module Error: Item link: No results found for search parameter "The Writhing Jar"..[2] Slipperyjim8 got a similar result.[3]
It is not certain that it is due to weighting, or as the name of the card suggested, "Baiting" the players to expect to get Reefbane. Lastly, some of the fishing items are prerequisites for the quest offered by Krillson, Master Fisherman. While some of them can be quest reward of that quest chain.
It is a spread rumor, that Module Error: Item link: No results found for search parameter "Angler's Plait". can be an outcome. Angler's Plait can only be obtained corrupted while Baited Expectations can only be redeemed for uncorrupted items. Thus, the ring may be not be able to be redeemed from the card set.
Reward statistics
Here is the summary of experimental data and estimated probability
| Fishing item | mbXtreme (n=60) [2] | %1 | Slipperyjim8 (n=50) [3] | %2 | poorFishwife (n≈400)[1] | %3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Module Error: Item link: No results found for search parameter "Song of the Sirens". | 4/60 | 6.67% | 6/50 | 12% | 7.6% | |
| Module Error: Item link: No results found for search parameter "Fairgraves' Tricorne". | 16/50 | 32% | 32.0% | |||
| Module Error: Item link: No results found for search parameter "Slitherpinch". | 14/50 | 28% | 36.6% | |||
| Module Error: Item link: No results found for search parameter "The Writhing Jar". | 10/50 | 20% | 12.2% | |||
| Module Error: Item link: No results found for search parameter "Rainbowstride". | 4/50 | 8% | 11.6% | |||
| Module Error: Item link: No results found for search parameter "Reefbane". | 0/60 | 0% | 0/50 | 0% | 0% | |
| Module Error: Item link: No results found for search parameter "Angler's Plait". | 0/60 | 0% | 0/50 | 0% | 0% |
Note that due to smaller sampling size, streamers' outcome may not truly reflect the real probability. poorFishwife's data may be better in term of confidence interval.
Version history
| Version | Changes |
|---|---|
| 3.9.0 |
|
References
- ↑ 1.0 1.1 poorFishwife (February 24, 2020). "[Serious] Videos of loot from Baited Expectations divination cards (unique fishing items)". Official Path of Exile subreddit. Retrieved February 24, 2020.
- ↑ 2.0 2.1 mbXtreme (February 15, 2020). "[PATH OF EXILE] – 60x “BAITED EXPECTATION” – WAIT… WHAT?". Youtube. Retrieved February 16, 2020.
- ↑ 3.0 3.1 Slipperyjim8 (February 24, 2020). "Loot from 50 Baited Expectations". Youtube. Retrieved February 24, 2020.